Dalasi Pulse

Gambian FX & remittance forecasting. Built on 26 years of Central Bank of The Gambia data. Remittances are 22% of GDP.

Last updated
7 Sept 2026
live: -

Live rates & 12-month forecast

SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1,12)
$USD
US Dollar
CV median MAPE
0.90%
Current rate
72.40GMD
12-month forecast
74.69 3.2%
80% CI: 70.0479.33
EUR
Euro
CV median MAPE
2.50%
Current rate
85.88GMD
12-month forecast
88.62 3.2%
80% CI: 81.7695.48
£GBP
British Pound
CV median MAPE
1.18%
Current rate
96.91GMD
12-month forecast
99.88 3.1%
80% CI: 91.84107.91

When to send money

When to send money

Green = more Dalasi per · Red = less Dalasi per

Best month to send

September 2027

1 = 88.62 GMD

Worst month to send

October 2026

1 = 86.10 GMD

Oct 26

86.1

+0.3%

Nov 26

86.2

+0.4%

Dec 26

86.7

+0.9%

Jan 27

86.9

+1.2%

Feb 27

87.2

+1.6%

Mar 27

87.3

+1.7%

Apr 27

87.7

+2.1%

May 27

87.5

+1.9%

Jun 27

87.8

+2.3%

Jul 27

87.9

+2.3%

Aug 27

88.2

+2.7%

Sep 27

88.6

+3.2%

Percentages show change from today's rate (85.88 GMD). Higher = more Dalasi per = better time to send.

Forecast interpretation

What does this mean for your family?

Plain-language reading of the 12-month forecast

The Dalasi is forecast to weaken against all three major currencies over the next 12 months. This is a continuation of the long-term trend.

Euro corridor (78% of diaspora)

1 Euro currently buys 85.88 GMD. In 12 months, the model expects it to buy 88.62 GMD (+3.2%).

For families in Spain, Italy, Germany: each Euro you send home will buy slightly more Dalasi as the year goes on. There is no urgency to send large sums now - the forecast favours patience. But the difference is small (3.2%), so send based on your family's needs, not market timing.

Dollar corridor (US & Middle East)

1 Dollar currently buys 72.40 GMD. 12-month forecast: 74.69 GMD (+3.2%).

Your dollars will stretch further in Gambia as the year goes on. The model is confident within a range of 70.04 to 79.33 GMD per dollar (80% confidence interval).

Month-by-month trajectory (EUR)
Oct 202686.1
+0.3%
Nov 202686.2
+0.4%
Dec 202686.7
+0.9%
Jan 202786.9
+1.2%
Feb 202787.2
+1.6%
Mar 202787.3
+1.7%
Apr 202787.7
+2.1%
May 202787.5
+1.9%
Jun 202787.8
+2.3%
Jul 202787.9
+2.3%
Aug 202788.2
+2.7%
Sep 202788.6
+3.2%

% change from today's rate. Green bars = more GMD per Euro.

Context: Remittances account for 22% of Gambia's GDP. Exchange rate movements directly affect purchasing power for families receiving money from abroad. These forecasts help you plan - but they are statistical estimates with uncertainty bands, not guarantees. Always prioritise your family's immediate needs over rate timing.

Remittance calculator

How much Dalasi will your relative receive when you send money home, now vs months ahead?

Amount
£
Today
9,691
GMD
In 1 mo
9,716
GMD
In 6 mo
9,875
GMD
In 12 mo
9,988
GMD

Exchange rate trajectory

US Dollar · GMD per 1 USD · 10-year history + 12-month forecast

HistoryForecast80% CI
4352627181now2016-102018-032019-082021-012022-062023-112025-042026-09

Euro · GMD per 1 EUR · 10-year history + 12-month forecast

HistoryForecast80% CI
4659728597now2016-102018-032019-082021-012022-062023-112025-042026-09

British Pound · GMD per 1 GBP · 10-year history + 12-month forecast

HistoryForecast80% CI
54688296110now2016-102018-032019-082021-012022-062023-112025-042026-09

Remittance inflows

Annual personal remittances received

World Bank · 20 years history + 3-year ARIMA forecast

Latest (2024)
$529.1M
22% of GDP
$0M$177M$354M$531M$707M200520082011201420172020202320262027
2025
$536M
$481M – $590M
2026
$539M
$441M – $636M
2027
$540M
$406M – $674M

Gambian diaspora

Gambian diaspora by destination

Migrant stock 2024 · UN DESA International Migrant Stock

ESSpain
29,653+27%
ITItaly
26,164+21%
SNSenegal
5,764+3%
GHGhana
2,109+12%
MLMali
1,629+12%
NONorway
1,392+11%
TGTogo
1,079+1%
FIFinland
1,062+18%
By currency corridor
EUR 78.7%NOK 1.9%DKK 1%

Note: UN DESA bilateral data does not include UK or US destinations for Gambian origin (those countries do not report origin breakdowns for small nationalities to UN DESA). Actual diaspora is larger - UK alone is estimated at ~36,000 Gambia-born migrants (2020 UK census).

How we clean the data

Data quality

What we removed from raw CBG data before forecasting

Retained
98.4%
Exact duplicates
80
dropped
Conflicting dupes
46
kept nearest-to-median
Outliers removed
66
>15% off rolling median
Outliers by currency
SEK 29CHF 9NOK 9JPY 6USD 6GBP 3EUR 2AED 1SAR 1

Why this matters:CBG's historical data contains scattered typos (e.g. a USD rate that jumped 30% in one day then reverted). If left in training data, these contaminate forecasts and widen confidence intervals. We remove duplicates, resolve conflicting values using local medians, and drop any point that deviates more than 15% from its 21-day rolling median. 192 points cleaned in total.